Draw Analysis1 min read

Express Entry Draws #403 to #405: CEC Cutoff Drops Below 510

After a quiet week following the early-March burst, IRCC resumed draws on March 16 with three rounds in three consecutive days. Combined, draws #403 through #405 issued 8,362 ITAs across PNP, CEC, and French-language streams.

Draw #403: Provincial Nominee Program (March 16)

Draw #403: 742 CRS(PNP)
  • CRS cutoff: 742
  • ITAs issued: 362
  • Tiebreaker: October 5, 2025 at 20:35:25 UTC

PNP cutoffs have been fluctuating between 700 and 800 throughout 2026. The 742 here is higher than draw #399's 710 two weeks earlier, suggesting a smaller pool of nominees was available. The 362 ITAs is in line with recent PNP volumes.

Draw #404: Canadian Experience Class (March 17)

Draw #404: 507 CRS(CEC)
  • CRS cutoff: 507
  • ITAs issued: 4,000
  • Tiebreaker: May 11, 2025 at 18:57:31 UTC

The headline number: 507 is the lowest CEC cutoff since January 2026 (draw #390 at 511, draw #400 at 508). The tiebreaker reaching back to May 2025 means IRCC cleared nearly 10 months of backlogged candidates at this score level.

With 4,000 ITAs, this was another large CEC round. The consistent 4,000+ invitation counts in recent CEC draws are a positive signal for candidates in the 505 to 515 range.

If your CRS score is between 500 and 510, you're now within striking distance of CEC draws. A single CLB level improvement in one language skill can add 6 to 8 points, which could push you over the cutoff.

Draw #405: French Language Proficiency (March 18)

Draw #405: 393 CRS(French)
  • CRS cutoff: 393
  • ITAs issued: 4,000
  • Tiebreaker: December 29, 2025 at 12:47:31 UTC

French-language cutoffs continue their downward march. At 393, this is the lowest French draw cutoff since draw #388 in December 2025 (399). The pool of French-proficient candidates is being drawn down aggressively, with IRCC issuing 4,000 to 8,500 ITAs per French round.

For context, the last four French draws:

DrawDateCRSITAs
#394Feb 64008,500
#401Mar 43975,500
#405Mar 183934,000

The trend is clear: cutoffs are dropping while IRCC maintains large invitation counts. French-language candidates with CRS scores in the 390s are getting through.

What this means for the rest of March

Based on the pattern so far, expect at least one more batch of draws before month-end. IRCC has been running draws in clusters (3 to 4 rounds in quick succession) followed by a pause of 10 to 14 days.

Key numbers to watch:

  • CEC: Will the cutoff break below 505? Two consecutive draws at 508 and 507 suggest it's possible.
  • French: Sub-390 cutoffs would be unprecedented in 2026. The question is whether the pool has enough qualified candidates at that level.
  • Category draws: After Senior Managers debuted in early March, another new or returning category draw could appear.

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